Predicting the Winners of the AI Platform Shift
The current AI platform shift is an exciting time of tech innovation. Unlike previous shifts, such as personal computing, the internet, and mobile phones, this AI period is resulting in a rapid pace of innovation, with something new being developed every week.
IMHO, some of the biggest companies of this platform era have yet to emerge. Historically, it usually takes 1 to 10 years after a platform shift for mega-companies to appear. The dust has to settle first. Due to the pace of change, my money is on the next 2-4 years.
Let’s look at prior shifts. The first personal computer was introduced in the 1970s, but it wasn't until the 1980s that the personal computer truly took off with the introduction of the IBM PC. It was in the 1980s and 1990s that companies like Microsoft and Apple capitalized on this, becoming two of the biggest tech giants in the world.
Similarly, while the Internet has been around since the 1960s, it wasn't until the early 1990s that it became widely available to the public. The release of the first popular web browser, Mosaic, in 1993 was followed by the introduction of Netscape Navigator in 1994, which quickly became the most popular web browser. Netscape played a key role in the popularization of the Internet and paved the way for the creation of many successful Internet-based companies, including Google, Amazon, and eBay.
The first mobile phone was introduced in the 1980s, but it wasn't until the late 2000s that the technology truly took off with the introduction of smartphones. The launch of Apple's iPhone in 2007 paved the way for the creation of app stores. It was in the years following the launch of the app store model that companies like Uber and Instagram were created and quickly became hugely successful.
Yes, we're in the middle of an AI platform shift, and yes, some significant developments have already been made in this space, but the next Google, Amazon, Facebook, or Microsoft isn't built yet. Also, because AI has wide applicability, many winners from many different categories will emerge.